Israel has long relied on the United States as its most important ally and weapons supplier. But Israeli leaders are now planning for a future in which American support could become less reliable—or come with conditions that limit Israel’s freedom to act.
That concern came into sharper focus this month when Yisrael Beytenu chairman Avigdor Liberman warned that the United States could recognize a Palestinian state within two years. Speaking at a counterterrorism summit at Reichman University, Liberman said he believed that would not happen while President Donald Trump remains in office. He urged Israel to use the time that is left to prevent what he called a diplomatic disaster.
Liberman claimed that officials he had spoken with at the State Department and National Security Council supported recognition of a Palestinian State. He predicted that Washington could lead a United Nations Security Council resolution and described a future Palestinian state as including Judea and Samaria, the Jordan Valley, Gaza and East Jerusalem.
Liberman’s warning reflects a fear in Israel that today’s political support could shift quickly after the next change of administration or even stall if US mid-terms weaken support for Trump.
A lesson Israel learned during the war
Israel has already seen how an American ally can apply pressure during a conflict. In 2024, the Biden administration paused one shipment of bombs while it reviewed Israel’s planned operation in Rafah. President Joe Biden also warned that certain offensive weapons would not be supplied if Israel launched a major ground operation there.
The pause involved specific munitions and did not amount to a complete cutoff of U.S. military aid. Still, the episode showed Israeli leaders that access to weapons can become part of a political dispute, even between close allies.
That experience helps explain why Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called for Israel to reduce its dependence on foreign suppliers. In December, he announced plans to invest 350 billion shekels—about $110 billion—over the next decade to develop an independent arms industry. He has acknowledged that complete self-sufficiency is unrealistic, but the goal is to produce more of the weapons and ammunition Israel needs at home.
This is not merely a response to one administration. Israel faces ongoing threats from Iran and its regional allies, while its military has been using large amounts of ammunition across multiple fronts. A stronger domestic defense industry could help Israel sustain operations when foreign shipments are delayed, restricted or caught up in political debate.
Democratic support for Israel is under growing pressure
For decades, support for Israel was a central part of the American political consensus. That consensus has weakened most visibly among Democrats, where criticism of Israel and opposition to U.S. military assistance have moved from the party’s progressive edge toward the center of its congressional debate.
The shift was on display in July, when the House considered an amendment to block $3.3 billion in annual security assistance to Israel. The measure failed, but 103 Democrats voted for it. The vote marked a sharp departure from the near-unanimous support Israel once received in Congress.
The disagreement reached into the party’s leadership. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries opposed the amendment, calling it too broad. But Katherine Clark, the second-ranking House Democrat, backed it, arguing that the United States should not provide a blank check to a country that does not comply with American law and values. Progressive Caucus Chair Greg Casar urged members to vote for the measure, saying Americans were demanding an end to U.S. tax dollars supporting Israel’s military.
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