Let’s begin by getting something out of the way.
Weather modification is not a conspiracy theory.
It is happening right now.
On August 23, a California weather-technology company called Rainmaker sent drones into clouds over Alaska’s Kenai Peninsula. The company says its aircraft conducted seven coordinated cloud-seeding missions, releasing silver iodide into clouds already containing moisture.
Rainmaker estimates that the operation generated between 45 and 65 acre-feet of additional precipitation, with an average estimate of 57.6 acre-feet.
That’s roughly 19 million gallons of water.
In about three hours.
The figure is Rainmaker’s estimate rather than an independently verified measurement, and the company acknowledges uncertainties in calculating exactly how much precipitation ultimately reached the ground. But the experiment illustrates something important.
Human beings are becoming increasingly capable of deliberately influencing weather.
And the technology is getting better.
This Isn’t The Cloud Seeding Of The Past
Cloud seeding has existed for roughly 80 years. The basic concept isn’t particularly mysterious.
Certain clouds contain supercooled water droplets that remain liquid below freezing. Introducing particles such as silver iodide can encourage ice crystals to form. Those crystals can grow until they eventually fall as snow or rain.
Cloud seeding cannot create a storm out of a clear blue sky. It requires the right atmospheric conditions, and its effectiveness remains difficult to quantify.
A 2024 Government Accountability Office review found estimates of additional precipitation from cloud seeding ranging from zero to 20 percent.
What is changing is everything surrounding the process.
Instead of simply sending airplanes into promising clouds, companies can increasingly combine drones, sophisticated radar, atmospheric sensors, satellite information and computer modeling to identify where and when seeding may have the greatest effect.
Rainmaker’s system includes autonomous drones capable of flying through severe icing conditions and software that forecasts seeding opportunities, monitors missions and estimates precipitation.
The old experiment is becoming a technology platform.
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Why Should You Care?
Because weather is money.
A prolonged drought can devastate farmers, increase food prices, reduce hydroelectric generation and drain reservoirs. Too much precipitation can destroy crops, flood homes, close highways and disrupt supply chains.
Snowpack determines how much water will eventually flow into reservoirs serving farms and cities. Rainfall can influence commodity prices. A major storm can produce billions of dollars in insurance losses.
So imagine a future in which weather modification becomes increasingly common.
If a company successfully increases mountain snowfall by 10 percent, communities downstream might gain enormous amounts of additional water.
But what happens when something goes wrong?
Suppose cloud-seeding operations are underway and an area subsequently experiences damaging flooding. Did the seeding contribute? By how much? Who is liable?
What if farmers believe precipitation was increased over one region at the expense of another?
What if a state attempts to increase its water supply from clouds that would subsequently have traveled into a neighboring state?
The science may ultimately show that many such accusations are unfounded. But once humans deliberately intervene in atmospheric processes, separating natural weather from human influence becomes enormously important economically, legally and politically.
Even the federal government’s watchdog says significant uncertainties remain. The GAO concluded that reliable information about cloud-seeding effectiveness and effects remains limited, while the consequences of much more widespread use of silver iodide are not fully known.
Meanwhile, federal oversight has struggled to keep pace. In February, the GAO reported that NOAA was not fully meeting its responsibilities for maintaining and publicly reporting information about weather-modification activities, estimating that more than half of reports filed with NOAA likely contained errors.
