Nearly three years after Hamas’s October 7, 2023 massacre in Israel and following the devastating war in the Gaza Strip, one might have expected a fundamental change in Palestinian public opinion.
The latest Palestinian public opinion poll, however, presents a disturbing picture.
The survey, conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and Gaza Strip between August 5 and 8, 2026, reveals that although support for Hamas has declined, the fundamental political attitudes that have plagued Palestinian society for decades remain largely intact.
Hamas remains a major political force; convicted terrorists and Hamas leaders remain popular candidates for the Palestinian Authority (PA) presidency; overwhelming majorities oppose the unconditional disarmament of Hamas; and Iran, Hezbollah, and the Houthis in Yemen continue to enjoy remarkably high approval ratings.
Perhaps the most alarming finding concerns the identity of the Palestinians’ future leaders.
Asked who is most suitable to succeed PA President Mahmoud Abbas, 39% chose imprisoned Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti. Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya came second with 16%, followed by former Fatah official Mohammed Dahlan with 15%.
In a hypothetical presidential election involving Abbas, Barghouti, and al-Hayya, Barghouti would receive an astonishing 54% of the votes among likely voters. Al-Hayya would receive 26%, while Abbas would receive only 14%.
Who is Marwan Barghouti?
He is not some imprisoned Palestinian political dissident. An Israeli court convicted him in 2004 of five counts of murder stemming from three terrorist attacks.
He was also convicted of attempted murder and membership in a terrorist organization. Barghouti was sentenced to five consecutive life terms plus 40 years.
Yet this is the man whom a majority of likely Palestinian voters would like to see as their next president.
The second-place candidate is the head of Hamas. That alone should cause alarm in Washington, Brussels and other Western capitals that continue to talk about Palestinian elections as though voting, by itself, will magically produce moderation and democracy.
The PA parliamentary elections are scheduled for November 28, 2026, with presidential elections expected in early 2027. The PSR poll offers a warning of what those elections could produce. If legislative elections were held today, Fatah would receive 32% of the votes and Hamas’s “Change and Reform” list would receive 29%. In the Gaza Strip, Hamas would actually come first, with 34% compared to 30% for Fatah.
In other words, Hamas could still win another Palestinian Authority election (as it did in 2006).
This is the same Hamas that carried out the October 7 massacre. Yet after everything that has happened since then, the terrorist group remains within striking distance of Fatah in an election.
True, Hamas has lost some support. Overall identification with Hamas has dropped from 35% ten months ago to 24%. Satisfaction with Hamas’s performance during the Gaza war has fallen from 60% to 42%.
These changes should not be ignored. Moreover, they should not be confused with a Palestinian repudiation of Hamas or its ideology.
When Palestinians are asked which faction is most deserving of representing and leading them, Hamas still beats Abbas’s Fatah: 28% to 21%. An encouraging 44% say neither faction deserves to lead, but Hamas nevertheless remains a major political player and retains the support of nearly one-quarter of the population.
Even more revealing is what Palestinians say about Hamas’s weapons.
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An overwhelming 72% say Hamas should not disarm before Israel completely withdraws from the Gaza Strip. Only 20% support disarmament before a full Israeli withdrawal. Opposition to disarming Hamas reaches 79% in the West Bank and 62% in Gaza.
This is crucial. The problem, therefore, is not whether Palestinians approve or disapprove of Hamas’s performance. The issue is whether they believe Hamas should be allowed to retain its weapons and continue functioning as an armed organization.
The answer from nearly three-quarters of the respondents is clear: Yes, at least until Hamas’s condition of a full Israeli withdrawal is met.
This should be of particular concern to the Trump Administration and anyone expecting Hamas to disarm as part of the latest Gaza arrangements. Hamas is not operating in a political vacuum. It knows that a large majority of Palestinians oppose requiring it to surrender its weapons before an Israeli withdrawal.
